Key findings:

• COVID-19的大流行在全球范围内继续影响药物市场，据估计，从2020年到2027年将累计药品市场扩大5000亿美元
• Highest volume growth is expected in Latin America, Asia and Africa, driven by a mix of population growth and expanded access. North America and Europe will see very low growth
• Demand for innovative drugs will drive oncology spending to approximately $370 billion by 2027, almost double the current level
• Biotech will represent 35% of spending globally in 2027 and will include both breakthrough cell and gene therapies, as well as a maturing biosimilar segment

• 全球医学支出的前景在Covid-19大流行期间发生了巨大变化，但预计将在很大程度上与前循环前景相似，不包括用于Covid-19-19的疫苗和治疗剂的支出。
• For non-COVID spending, lower trends in the near-term are expected to be largely offset and by 2027, the cumulative reduction from the pre-pandemic outlooks is expected to be only $4Bn.
• 较低支出的最重要的驱动因素是那些通常无症状的情况，这些疾病破坏了患者的参与度并且无法构成先前预期的使用和支出的积压。

• 从广义上讲，人均国内生产总值与较高收入国家的使用较高的药物相关。
• 随着国家的成本负担直接承受的变化，患者使用药物的方式存在一些相关性。
• 美国的人均DDD数量最低，这可能是由于患者高昂的自付费用曝光率的结果。

• Global medicine spending — the amount spent purchasing medicines from manufacturers before off-invoice discounts and rebates — is expected to reach $1.9Tn by 2027, increasing at a rate of 3–6% per year.
• This outlook is excluding the separate impact of spending on COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics modeled separately (see Exhibits 1–4).
• Overall growth trends are expected to moderate after the disruptions from the pandemic in 2020 through 2022.

• Regions around the world are growing following diverging trends, with some more volume driven while others have a greater contribution from adoption of innovation.
• 在到2027年的五年中，拉丁美洲，亚太地区，非洲和中东预计将增长10％以上，而支出增长将增长30％以上，表明人口驱动的量增长和产品组合到更昂贵的产品的转变。
• 中国as the world’s second largest country by pharmaceutical spending, will increase volume by 8% in aggregate over five years, while spending will increase 19%, a more modest rate than in the prior years and still embedding a focus on expanding access to novel drugs via the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL).

• 2027年预测支出最高的治疗区域是肿瘤学，免疫学和抗糖尿病学，其次是心血管。
• Oncology is expected to grow 13–16% CAGR through to 2027 as novel treatments continue to be launched for the treatment of cancer.
• 由于生物仿制药的推出，预计免疫学预计将在3-6％的范围内缓慢增长。尽管已经在欧洲推出了几种生物仿制药，从而导致免疫学细分市场的增长缓慢，但Adalimumab Biosimailerar于2023年在美国推出的推出将进一步影响增长。