关键发现：

• The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact pharmaceutical markets globally, and is estimated to expand the net cumulative pharmaceutical market by $500 billion from 2020 through 2027
• 在人口增长和扩大的获取范围内，拉丁美洲，亚洲和非洲的批量增长预计将在拉丁美洲，亚洲和非洲。北美和欧洲的增长将非常低
• 到2027年，对创新药物的需求将使肿瘤学支出达到约3700亿美元，几乎是当前水平的两倍
• 生物技术将在2027年全球支出的35％，包括突破性细胞和基因疗法，以及成熟的生物仿制药段

• The outlook for global medicine spending has shifted considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic but is expected to be largely similar to the pre-COVID outlook, excluding the spending for COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics.
• 对于非循环支出，预计近期的较低趋势将在很大程度上被抵消，到2027年，流行前前景的累积减少预计仅为40亿美元。
• 较低支出的最重要的驱动因素是那些通常无症状的情况，这些疾病破坏了患者的参与度并且无法构成先前预期的使用和支出的积压。

• Broadly there is a correlation to gross domestic product per capita, with higher medicine use in higher income countries.
• As countries vary in the cost burden patients directly bear, there is some correlation in the way patients use medicine.
• The U.S. has the lowest per capita DDD volumes of developed markets, which may be the result of high patient out-of-pocket cost exposure.

• 全球医学支出 - 预计到2027年之前从制造商那里购买药品的金额预计将达到1.9吨，每年以3-6％的速度增加。
• 这种前景排除了支出对单独建模的共同疫苗和治疗剂的独立影响（请参阅图表1-4）。
• 在2020年至2022年大流行后，预计总体增长趋势将中等。

• 随着趋势的分歧，世界各地的地区正在不断增长，其中一些批量驱动，而其他地区则在采用创新方面做出了更大的贡献。
• Countries in Latin America, Asia-Pacific, and Africa and the Middle East are expected to grow more than 10% by volume over the five years to 2027, while spending growth will increase by over 30%, indicating both population-driven volume growth and a shift in the mix of products to more expensive products.
• China as the world’s second largest country by pharmaceutical spending, will increase volume by 8% in aggregate over five years, while spending will increase 19%, a more modest rate than in the prior years and still embedding a focus on expanding access to novel drugs via the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL).

• The therapy areas with the highest forecast spending in 2027 are oncology, immunology, and anti-diabetics, followed by cardiovascular.
• 随着新的治疗方法继续用于治疗癌症，预计肿瘤学将增长到2027年的复合年增长率至2027年。
• Immunology is expected to grow slowly in the range of 3-6% due to the launch of biosimilars; while several biosimilars are already launched in Europe, leading to slow growth of the immunology segment, the launch of adalimumab biosimilar in 2023 in the U.S. is further expected to impact growth.